Fundamental analysis

Reading financial statements

Three documents describe any business completely. You do not need an accounting degree to extract the important parts — you need to know which dozen lines matter.

Part of Fundamental analysisReading time 10 minLevel Intermediate

Every listed company publishes three statements. The income statement shows profitability over a period, the balance sheet shows what it owns and owes at a moment, and the cash flow statement shows the money that actually moved.

The income statement

Reads top to bottom, from money in to money kept:

LineWhat it isWhy it matters
RevenueTotal salesThe top line. Growth here is the healthiest kind of growth
Gross profitRevenue minus direct costsGross margin reveals pricing power
Operating incomeAfter running costs — wages, R&D, marketingThe cleanest measure of the core business
Net incomeAfter interest and taxThe bottom line, but the most manipulable one
EPSNet income per shareWhat per-share value the business generated

The margins matter more than the absolute numbers. A company growing revenue 30% while its gross margin collapses is buying growth by cutting price — a fundamentally different story from one growing 15% with stable margins.

The balance sheet

A snapshot on one date, governed by one identity: Assets = Liabilities + Equity. Everything the company controls was funded either by borrowing or by owners.

  • Current assets vs current liabilities — can it pay what is due within a year? The current ratio (assets ÷ liabilities) below 1 warrants investigation.
  • Total debt — compare to equity and to operating profit. Debt is not inherently bad; debt that earnings cannot service is.
  • Cash — the buffer. Companies rarely fail because of low profit; they fail because they run out of cash.
  • Goodwill — the premium paid on past acquisitions. A large goodwill balance is a future write-down risk if those acquisitions disappoint.

The cash flow statement — the honest one

If you only read one statement, read this. Profit involves judgement calls about when to recognise revenue and how to spread costs. Cash is harder to dress up.

SectionCoversWhat you want to see
OperatingCash from the actual businessPositive, growing, and comfortably exceeding net income
InvestingCapital expenditure and acquisitionsNegative is normal and healthy — the company is investing
FinancingDebt, equity issuance, dividends, buybacksContext-dependent; persistent share issuance dilutes you

Free cash flow

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital expenditure. This is the cash genuinely left over after keeping the business running: available for dividends, buybacks, debt repayment or reinvestment.

Many experienced investors treat free cash flow as the number that matters most, because it is the hardest to fake and the closest to what an owner actually receives.

Ratios worth computing

RatioFormulaReads as
Gross marginGross profit ÷ revenuePricing power and cost control
Operating marginOperating income ÷ revenueCore efficiency
ROENet income ÷ shareholder equityReturn generated on owners' capital
Debt-to-equityTotal debt ÷ equityLeverage and financial risk
Interest coverOperating income ÷ interest expenseBelow ~3 is a warning sign
Current ratioCurrent assets ÷ current liabilitiesShort-term solvency

Red flags

  • Net income rising while operating cash flow falls
  • Receivables growing much faster than revenue — sales made, cash not collected
  • Inventory growing much faster than revenue — products not selling
  • Repeated “one-off” charges that appear every single year
  • Heavy reliance on adjusted or non-standard earnings measures in the presentation
  • Frequent changes of auditor or chief financial officer

A twenty-minute routine

  1. 1
    Revenue trend, three years

    Growing, flat or shrinking? Accelerating or decelerating?

  2. 2
    Margins, three years

    Stable, expanding or compressing? Compression needs an explanation.

  3. 3
    Operating cash flow vs net income

    Do they move together? If not, find out why.

  4. 4
    Debt and interest cover

    Can operating profit service the debt several times over?

  5. 5
    Free cash flow

    Positive and growing, or perpetually promised for next year?

  6. 6
    Share count

    Rising steadily? Your slice is being diluted every year.

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Fundamental analysis