Foundations

How markets actually work

Before any indicator or strategy makes sense, you need a mental model of what a price is and where it comes from. It is simpler — and stranger — than most people expect.

Part of FoundationsReading time 9 minLevel Beginner

A market price is not a fact about the world. It is the last number two people disagreed about strongly enough to trade on. Everything else in trading follows from that single idea.

A price is an agreement, not a valuation

At any instant there are people willing to buy and people willing to sell. The highest price a buyer will currently pay is the bid. The lowest price a seller will currently accept is the ask (or offer). The gap between them is the spread.

No trade happens while those two numbers stay apart. A trade occurs the moment someone decides they would rather transact now than hold out for a better price — they cross the spread. That transaction price becomes “the price” you see quoted, until the next one replaces it.

The order book

Behind the single quoted price sits a queue of unfilled orders at every price level, called the order book. It is the market's real anatomy:

SideWhat sits thereWhat it means for you
Bids (below)Buyers waiting at lower pricesSupport in the literal sense — resting demand your sell order can hit
Asks (above)Sellers waiting at higher pricesResting supply that must be absorbed before price can rise
DepthHow much size sits at each levelA thin book means your own order can move the price

When people say a market is liquid, they mean the book is deep — you can trade meaningful size without pushing the price far. Illiquid markets are where beginners get quietly punished: the price on the screen is not the price you get.

Who is on the other side?

It is worth being honest about this. Your counterparty is usually one of:

  • Market makers. Firms that quote both a bid and an ask continuously and earn the spread. They are not betting on direction; they want to buy at the bid and sell at the ask thousands of times a day.
  • Institutions. Pension funds, insurers and asset managers moving large size for reasons that have nothing to do with your chart — a mandate, a redemption, a rebalance.
  • Hedgers. An airline fixing its fuel cost, an exporter locking in an exchange rate. They are willing to lose money on the trade because it protects their real business.
  • Other speculators. Including algorithms that react faster than you can blink.

Notice that two of those four groups are not trying to profit from the price move at all. That is what makes markets tradeable — not everyone in them is playing your game.

Exchanges versus over-the-counter

Stocks and futures trade on exchanges: a central venue, a single visible order book, published volume, fixed hours. Forex and most CFDs trade over-the-counter (OTC): a decentralised network of banks and brokers, each quoting their own price.

This has a practical consequence people rarely explain. In forex there is no single official volume figure and no single official price — your broker's chart and mine can differ by a pip. Any strategy that depends on precise volume readings is on shakier ground in forex than in equities.

What actually makes price move

Price moves when the balance of urgency shifts. Not the balance of opinion — the balance of urgency. A million people can believe a stock is undervalued, but if none of them place an order, the price does not move an inch.

  1. 1
    Someone becomes impatient

    A buyer decides waiting at the bid is no longer good enough and lifts the offer instead.

  2. 2
    Resting supply is consumed

    Their order eats through the sell orders sitting at that level.

  3. 3
    The quote moves up

    With that level cleared, the next-lowest ask becomes the new price.

  4. 4
    Others react

    Momentum traders, stop-losses and algorithms respond to the move, which itself creates more urgency in the same direction.

Step four is why moves extend further than the original news seems to justify. Much of a large move is the market reacting to itself.

The costs nobody mentions first

CostWhat it isTypical impact
SpreadDifference between bid and ask, paid on entryYou start every trade slightly down
CommissionBroker's fee per tradeFixed or per-share; matters most to frequent traders
SlippageGetting a worse price than you clickedWorst in fast markets and thin books
Overnight financingInterest on leveraged positions held past the closeQuietly erodes long-held leveraged trades
Spread wideningSpreads expand around news and at session gapsA stop placed too tight can be hit by the spread alone

Check yourself

A stock reports excellent earnings and the price immediately falls. What is the most likely explanation?
Prices reflect expectations, not just outcomes. If buyers had already bought in anticipation, the news gives them a reason to take profit rather than a reason to buy more. “Buy the rumour, sell the news” describes exactly this.
You place a large market order in a thinly traded stock. What most likely happens?
The screen price is only the best available price for a limited quantity. A large order consumes that level and continues into the next, and the next — this is slippage, and it is why position size and liquidity have to be considered together.

Next, we turn the abstract idea of a price into the thing you will actually stare at for hours: the candlestick chart.

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